Airbus New CSeries Factory in Toulouse? Hamburg?
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April 12, 2018 - AirInsight by Addison Schonland
- If Mirabel keeps struggling with deliveries, we might expect the Alabama FAL to be moved along smartly. However, considering the supply and potential demand, is a FAL in Toulouse or Hamburg off the table?
As Airbus and Bombardier move through, what appears, to be a smooth transition, what might one start thinking about in terms of the market? Currently, it looks like the CS program will be under the Airbus flag by Farnborough.
For Airbus, the most logical place to see opportunities for the CS program will among its own customers. Specifically, those who use the A318 and A319. The former is easily replaced by the CS100 and the latter by the CS300. While the new CS partnership will chase every deal that pits them against Boeing, it makes sense to see any aging Airbus as a lower hurdle to keep "on-side".
The table lists the fleet as at year end 2017. The A318 was not a great success but has the right profile for replacement by the CS100, which is a far more capable aircraft. The A319 has been a much better market success and the CS300 is a good replacement. The A319 is clearly the far more important market. We are sanguine about the future of the A319neo.