Pandemic Cuts New-Aircraft Needs 25% Through 2025, Analysts Say
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March 31, 2020 - by Sean Broderick for aviationweek.com
While airlines are only beginning to sort out what their post-pandemic fleets will look like, speculation is that many older and larger models, including Boeing 747s, 757s and 767s and Airbus A380s, will not return from storage.
A 40% drop in global revenue passenger miles followed by a rapid snap-back and leveling out of 5% year-over-year growth starting in 2023 would cut near-term new-aircraft demand about 25% from pre-coronavirus pandemic estimates, Vertical Research Partners analysts conclude.
Vertical plugged a 40% traffic decline into its model for 2020, with rebounds of 19% next year and 10% in 2022, the company said in a Mar. 30 research note. Among the outputs: airlines would need 6,300 new aircraft over the next five years, down from its previous forecast of 8,300.
On a percentage basis, the reduction would hit narrowbodies and...