13:40 (17:40 UTC) - June 13, 2018 - Quebec, Canada by Sylvain Faust

Updated June 19 - 2018 - Air Tanzania two CSeries MSN are 55047 and 55048, both CS300. More Below...

The first quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar) saw 5 aircraft delivery, an average of (0+1+4)/3 = 1.67 aircraft per month.

April and May had 2 deliveries each month (2 in April, 2 in May) for a total of 9 for the first 5 months of 2018, a monthly delivery average of (0+1+4+2+2)/5 = 1.8 CSeries aircraft delivery per month in 2018.

Bombardier Inc. is still telling its shareholders "40 CSeries deliveries in 2018". Between you and me, if you believe that, you must be one of those suckers born every minute?

40 aircraft less the 9 CSeries of the first 5 months is 31 left to be delivered from June until the end of the year.

This means 31 aircraft to be delivered over 7 months, or an average of almost 4.5 aircraft per month, month after month until the end of December 2018, starting now, in June!

So, how does it look like for June you asked?

So far in June there has been 1 delivery, a SWISS CS300 (MSN 55030) who left Mirabel on June 1^st. There are still 17 days to go before July.

Here's the deal for the next few CSeries deliveries.

airBaltic 55034: The airline has accepted the aircraft but in case of airBaltic first CSeries order (not the latest one) the bank financing the aircraft needs "also" to make its inspection and acceptance (I've mentioned this in the past). The bank representative will be in Mirabel before the end of the week. Expect this one to be ferry out of Mirabel either Friday or Saturday, I'm assuming. (+1 June Delivery)

SWISS 55032: This one is having its client acceptance flight today as I'm writing this. "IF" all is well and ok, ferry could be the following day or so. (+1 June Delivery)

SWISS 55033: Another CS300 aircraft could have its acceptance flight early next week and, "IF" all is ok could have departed Mirabel for Switzerland like 55032, just a few days apart, and that is the problem for SWISS. Taking delivery of a CSeries per week is not something SWISS wants. Expect this one to either be ferry out of Mirabel during the last days of June or first few days of July. IF delivered in July, this would make SWISS the First Airbus CSeries Client. (Maybe +1 June Delivery)

Korean Air 55026: This would be KAL 6^th CSeries aircraft for the South Korean airline.It should be doing its First Flight (toward its pre-delivery test flights) either late Friday or Saturday June 16. It is to be noted that this aircraft would be the Last First Fight of a CSeries under the Management of Bombardier. Delivery is expected to be before the end of July.

airBaltic 55038 and SWISS 55036: We should see each aircraft doing their first flight before the end of June, but… if you asked me, it could very well be during the first week or so of July and one of the two to become the first CSeries First Flight under the management of Airbus. Else it would be Korean Air CS300 MSN 55028 with its first flight scheduled for the first week of July.

The Bottom line

We could see June having a maximum of 4 but more likely of 3 CSeries aircraft deliveries. The last time in 2018 that over 2 CSeries were ferry out of Mirabel during the same month was in March with a total of 4 aircraft. To be in line with what we are told in terms of deliveries we would need each month 4 and sometimes 5 aircraft deliveries until the end of the year.

Ok, how many are scheduled for delivery in July? Just 2. In August? 3 aircraft are. I'll let you draw your own conclusion.

Airbus Canada says Mirabel will produce 10 CSeries per month (remember for how long we've been told that by Bombardier?). I'm definitively looking forward Airbus huge investment in Quebec for this, everyone at the CSeries holding are very happy if this is real, and me too. Hey! More space, tools, employees, resources, organisations… Oh, and the first $US900 millions comes from Bombardier Inc. shareholders over the next 3 years, so, why not spent it in Mirabel (oops and Airbus U.S. Mobile, Alabama facility).

Could Bombardier, then a CSeries supplier to Airbus Canada factory in Mirabel and also Airbus U.S. in Mobile, Alabama, could Bombardier be able to produce/deliver 14 sets of wings from Bombardier Belfast per month? (10 for Mirabel factory and 4 for Mobile factory?) Also, the same number of CSeries cockpit made by Bombardier in St-Laurent/Montreal and Bombardier fuselage made in China? Wow, am I dreaming?

Pratt and Whitney will probably take the blame once again? That was a funny one, oops, sorry.

One thing for sure, Bombardier should not be slowing down the CSeries delivery just for not recording too much loses in their books anymore. Recording a lost at each delivery, not delivering too many aircraft allowed the company not to record very large lost and especially not also to be spending more cash into the factory to be able to achieve a better delivery rate; it would not have looked too nice in Bombardier Inc. financial results?

Also knowing that they would be spending an additional CAP (limited) amount of over $1 billion dollars during the next 3 years on the Airbus CSeries, it was understood long time ago why the people at the factory were not getting all what was necessary to get to that "10 aircraft per month" faster.

• 1- Recording a lost at each aircraft, aiming for a minimum delivery rate generating nicer financial results.
• 2- Not putting up the cash required to complete the assembly line like it was first designed to be, would have added to the lost and to the cash requirements where the company was already in a not too good situation.
• 3- Having to give 50% of all this down the road to Airbus PLUS another billion dollars.

Bombardier shareholders are also giving Airbus warrants allowing the company to purchase 100 million Bombardier Inc. B shares at a fixed price of $2.29 (current share price is $4.92) valid for up to 5 years after the closing of the deal, July first 2018.

$269 Millions of profit, this is the current "market" value of those 100 million warrants given to Airbus with a strike price of $2.29. Those 100 million new shares will be diluting Bombardier Inc B shares holders when executed. Looks like 50% of the CSeries AND spending over one more Billion $ on the CSeries by the Bombardier shareholders was not enough for Airbus to make the CSeries appealing. What a "deal"… Well, like said Airbus CEO, "it is a nice little airplane".

If you want to know if the Bombardier Inc. shareholders will ever see again that $7+ billion that did cost the CSeries to the company and the government of Quebec its $1.3 billion, read this.

The Good News

DELTA first 3 CSeries are advancing. MSN 50020, 50021 and 50022, all CS100 (MSN starting with 50 are CS100, starting with 55 are CS300). By the end of August, beginning of September we will see the first Delta painted CSeries in Mirabel. Avianor is working on the completion of Korean Air MSN 55035.

Air Tanzania has its 2 ordered CS300 now on the production line. Those are the only 2 aircraft bought by the airline. In order, the clients who received and will receive a CSeries are: SWISS, airBaltic, Korean Air, Delta, Air Tanzania. Who would be next after Air Tanzania? I said too much already today.

Remember when I posted on May 22, 2018: "The new e-mail addresses are going to be firstname.lastname@abc.airbus. All CSeries employees will be automatically converted. Mails addressed to the old @aero.bombardier.com address are going to be forwarded for a temporary period of time." It is now working.

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Sylvain Faust, Fliegerfaust

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