Airbus Mobile Alabama: "I’ve been told the plant will have a capacity of 10/mo, (CSeries) but BBD denied this"
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June 26, 2018 - Leeham News - By Scott Hamilton
Mobile is the newest emerging aerospace cluster in the US. The A320 FAL is only a few years old. The initial production plan was 4/mo and a maximum capacity of 8/mo. The low-rate initial production (LRIP, to use jargon), of course, began at about 2/mo.
The FAL will go to 6/mo this year and likely be bumped up to 8/mo within a year or two after that.
The new C Series plant will have a capacity of 4/mo, a Bombardier official told me during a telephone press conference announcing regulatory clearance and July 1 effective date of the Airbus-C Series partnership. (I've been told the plant will have a capacity of 10/mo, but BBD denied this.)
Construction of the plant begins next year and production in 2020.
For sake of argument, let's assume production begins mid-year. This gives the potential of 12 USA-built C Series in 2020. I conservatively ramp-up production estimates 1/mo more in 2021 and the final 1/mo the following year.
Delta Air Lines ordered 75 CS100s in 2016. During the trade complaint hearings filed by Boeing a year later, and following announcement of the Mobile FAL, Delta said it prefers and wants to take delivery of Mobile-produced airplanes.
A new carrier, Moxy Airlines, secured delivery positions beginning in 2020. Suggestions that Moxy's 60 orders combined with Delta's will fill the production line for 26 months is uninformed, un-researched clap-trap.
LNC has seen the delivery stream proposed. Combining with Delta, I see the latter airline taking perhaps five CS100s from the Airbus Canada (ex-Bombardier) Montreal plant and 10 from Mobile. Moxy would take seven CS300s from Mobile in 2020, under these assumptions.
As production ramps up in 2021 and beyond, the combined Delta and Moxy deliveries leave open slots for other US carriers.