Aging 100 Seat Aircraft: Low Hanging Fruit for the E2, C Series, and SSJ - AirInsight
Braathens Regional, a Swedish regional carrier, operates 12 AvroRJs averaging 22 years of age and has selected the Bombardier C Series as a replacement, with 10 CS100s on order, with 10 options, to replace them. But there seems to be no rush to take deliveries
Click Like to Follow Fliegerfaust Facebook page to get the News ASAP / Share to share this post now.
Ernest S. Arvai Posted on November 29, 2017
The 100 seat aircraft market is undergoing a transition, as Sukoi, Embraer and Bombardier all have new aircraft available in that size category. At the same time, several aircraft types are aging dramatically or economically challenged that need replacement. And when new aircraft meet operator needs, sales should occur. What have we seen and what can we expect from this market?
The replacement aircraft candidates include the A318 from Airbus, the 737-600 and 717-200 from Boeing, the Fokker 100, and the BAe146/Avro RJ family. At the end of the second quarter 2017, there were 657 aircraft from these models still in service, with an average age of 21.5 years. Clearly, replacements will soon be in the works.
The table below shows that 516 aircraft are flown by the 47 carriers with a fleet size of 4 or more aircraft.
Seventeen airlines have a fleet of 10 or more aircraft in this category that need replacement and account for 359 of those aircraft. These are clearly the priority targets for the OEMs. In examining the fleets of these airlines, many have already made their new aircraft selection while others are likely to invite competition over the next year or two.
Management running marketing for the three OEMs no doubt have sales teams focused on Australia and Iran, each of which has substantial opportunities for fleet renewal. Let's look at the largest carriers and opportunities.
Delta Air Lines is the 900-pound gorilla of this group, with 91 Boeing 717-200s, which it has already decided to replace with the Bombardier C Series, for which it has ordered 75 plus 50 options.
Next in size is Cobham Aviation in Australia with 20 717s and 10 BAe/Avro RJs that will need replacement. While its 717s are nearly 15 years old, the remaining aircraft average over 23 years old and will soon be in need of a replacement. This could be a two-tranche order for 10 in the next year or so, plus another 20 five to ten years later. We would suspect that Macquarie Leasing in Australia has targeted these folks as a potential customer for their C Series positions.
Hawaiian Air is next in size, with 20 Boeing 717s. The carrier is apparently quite satisfied with the aircraft, which average 14.4 years of age, and should remain in the fleet for 6-8 more years before replacement. Hawaiian moves to the back burner.
- Passengers like flying on planes NOT Made by Boeing or Airbus ... ›
- Boeing scorns Airbus Bombardier plan for Alabama facility ... ›