Richard Aboulafia on Boeing vs Bombardier CSeries - Interesting!
Boeing should focus on doing what's best for the company. It's hard to see how the company's interests are served by this complaint - But I'd much rather have the contract to supply new footwear to their executives. I suspect there's more foot shooting to come.
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The CSeries may benefit from more than just additional support from Ottawa. The aviation industry had viewed the CSeries as a marginal player with a 2% share of the single aisle market, a possible orphan product with a dubious future. Boeing's complaint gives it credibility. It frames the CSeries as a feared underdog, worthy of attention. And Delta, Spirit, and JetBlue have come out against Boeing's complaint. Airlines don't like being told they can't buy a jet.
Bombardier, in short, might be the big winner here.
Before this complaint, Eurofighter had no chance as the next RCAF fighter. But given the likely deterioration in Canada-US relations, we can't rule it out.
But Boeing's complaint puts the CSeries at the center of US-Canadian tensions. That will make it much easier for Ottawa to provide more support for the CSeries. Consider the two fundamentals of Canadian identity: (1) Keep the French in, and (2) Keep the Americans out. The CSeries is now useful for both.
The CS100 competes with the ghost of the 717, a 106-seat jet that Boeing hasn't built in 11 years. The CS300 (237 orders) competes with the 737MAX7, the company's least popular and economically significant jet. This is not a valid reason for a Boeing freak-out.
Yet freak out they did. The Seattle Times this month quoted former BCA CEO Ray Conner's testimony before Commerce, "it will only take one or two lost sales involving major U.S. customers before the commercial viability of the MAX 7 — and therefore the US industry's very future – becomes highly doubtful." I'll assume that Conner was exaggerating for effect. Even with that assumption, this statement is ridiculous.
Read it all here... http://richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=532
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