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Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Jan. 28, 2018 10:07PM EST
Celebration at Bombardier HQ Office in Montreal, Quebec, Canada - Célébration au bureau de Bombardier à Montréal, Québec, Canada

The ITC ruling is a good reason to celebrate, or is it? - La décision de l'ITC est une bonne raison de célébrer?

Version en Français Incluse

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12:30 (17:30 UTC) - January 28, 2018 - Quebec, Canada
by Normand Hamel for Fliegerfaust

(version en Français au bas)

Every article I have read about the ITC ruling in favour of Bombardier said more or less the same thing: totally unexpected, a big surprise, stunning!

Actually I think there was no surprise at all for Bombardier and Airbus. For I am convinced that they knew in advance the decision was going to be in their favour. Am I suggesting that the whole process might have been rigged? Yes, I am.

So far I have not seen any official statement coming from Airbus, but here is what Bombardier had to say:

"We are extremely proud of our employees, investors and suppliers who have worked together to bring this remarkable aircraft to the market."

If they are so proud of their employees, the majority of them based in Canada, why are they planning to move their jobs to the USA?

Alain Bellemare CEO Bombardier and Tom Enders, Airbus Chief Executive, the evening before the ITC decision at a Montreal Canadians hockey game, Molson Centre.

Now here is what Delta had to say:

"Delta is pleased by the U.S. International Trade Commission's ruling rejecting Boeing's anticompetitive attempt to deny U.S. airlines and the U.S. traveling public access to the state-of-the-art 110-seat CS100 aircraft…"

Really? How can Delta be pleased seeing the delivery of the C Series they have on order being postponed by at least three years?

First of all, to build a second assembly line at this early stage makes no economic sense whatsoever. Be it in Canada, the United-States or anywhere else in the world.

Bombardier need between 300 and 600 million USD to build that line but they have no money available for this project other than the 1000 million USD that the government of Québec has invested in the C Series. Was it Québec's intention to create jobs in the USA? I don't think so.

The only party that has any reason to be pleased is Airbus. Because the whole expense of building a second assembly line will be entirely paid for by Bombardier. With Québec's money I would like to remind you.

Airbus A320 new assembly site in Mobile, Alabama, USA

Besides, why not finish the assembly line in Mirabel before building a new one in Mobile? In case you don't already know the Mirabel assembly line has not been completed yet due to a lack of money. See my three-part series of articles on this topic: https://www.fliegerfaust.com/mirabel-cseries-production-2482160976.html

In short the situation is this: Once the airplanes have been structurally assembled they currently need to be moved to an improvised hangar complex, and some of them to an outside vendor, in order to have their interior completed. That's because the new facility that had been planned for this purpose has never been built.

One of the numerous reasons why Mirabel is not delivering as many airplanes as they should is because this improvised secondary facility is totally saturated at the moment. So a new facility is badly needed and I hear that Bombardier are indeed planning to move the CRJ line out of Mirabel, to relocate it back in Dorval where it was in the early days, in order to make room for the C Series. See my article about this: https://www.fliegerfaust.com/cseries-production-2511149448.html

I am struggling to find a rationale behind the decision to proceed with the construction of an assembly line in the USA for the C Series when in fact the Canadian facility has not even been completed yet. And if they had no money for Mirabel why would they have some for Mobile? Oh yeah, I forgot, they now have money from Québec.

If I sound like a frustrated tax payer it is simply because indeed I am. As a Canadian I saw my money being injected into Bombardier in good faith. Now I feel betrayed.

Alain Bellemare Bombardier CEO Welcoming at Mirabel Delta CEO, Edward Bastian

I can't find a reasonable explanation for an assembly line in the USA other than having been forced to do so by the US government. So instead of being 55% made in the US the C Series will now be 85% made in the United Sates, and this at the expense of Canadian tax payers. This is truly amazing!

Do you know how much it costs to build a C Series? Me neither. All I know is that Bombardier are losing money on each and everyone they build. In fact it will take many more years before they can make a profit.

First they need to get at the right place on the learning curve. They also need to improve productivity, which is presently hampered by the lack of a proper facility to complete the aircraft when they come off the assembly line. But did I mention that they had no money for this?

New orders for the C Series are few and far between, yet the order book is approaching 400 airplanes, which would have kept Mirabel going for a few more years. But not if the Delta order is assembled in Mobile. Which will eventually starve Mirabel and the facility will never become profitable because the production rate will remain far too low. Unless an avalanche of new orders suddenly comes in.

By the way it will be the same in the USA, only worse. Because for all practical purposes Bombardier has sold a grand total of 75 aircraft for the American market. And they want to build a 600 million dollar facility, some say 300 millions because part of the required infrastructure is already accounted for, to assemble those airplanes when they already have one assembly hall operating at idle and ready to deliver to Delta in the coming months. Again, this is truly amazing!

Journalists and employees of Delta checking the interior of the Bombardier CS300

Normally, Bombardier would have to substantially increase production in Mirabel before building another assembly line in a different country. Especially in view of the fact that the existing site can potentially produce 280 airplanes per year (2 X 140). Moreover, there are plenty of other sites nearby on the Bombardier lot that would be available for further expansion in case they need to produce more that 280 a year. In fact the Mirabel site has no practical limits in terms of space and manpower.

Before building an assembly line in another country Bombardier would need to be already producing at least 280 airplanes per year, more or less like Airbus did when they opened Tianjin in China. For political reasons I need to mention. And later on in Mobile, Alabama. Again, strictly for political reasons.

So is it possible that Bombardier will be building an assembly line in the United States for political reasons as well? There is no doubt in my mind about this.

But why do so at such an early stage in the C Series development? Perhaps someone twisted their arms, I would like to suggest. For in my opinion this is much more than a smart political move. In fact it sounds to me like a diplomatic ultimatum.

Now I have to come back to Delta, who has to bear the burden of this idiotic move. Try to imagine this: Delta were scheduled to receive their first airplane next Summer but they will now have to wait another three years. Does that make sense to you? That's what I thought. Does this sound to you as if the cards had been stacked? Yeah, me too.

It definitely looks as if a very powerful hand had drastically changed Delta's plans for them. I think the options were quite limited for Delta: You do, or you die.

Bombardier and Airbus executives in Montreal working on the closing of the transaction between Airbus and CSeries Holding in which the Quebec government also co-owns $ 1.3 billion.

As for Airbus we have to keep in mind that they are now a partner with Bombarder in the C Series programme. And like Bombardier they want the C Series to become profitable as soon as possible.

But how can they make a profit with two minimally operated assembly lines located in different countries, and with such a small order book? Make it an extremely small order book in the case of the American plant.

Don't try to understand because since day one nothing about this saga has been logical or rational. And this includes the ITC ruling, which appeals to the mind only when taken at face value and does not bear close examination.

Make no mistake, with this ITC ruling justice did not prevail. And common sense did not win either. So who wins you ask? I will let you figure this one out. It's a no-brainer.

Normand Hamel

The author can be contacted at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

Version langue Française:

La décision de l'ITC est une bonne raison de célébrer?

12h30 (17h30 UTC) - 28 janvier 2018 - Québec, Canada
par Normand Hamel pour Fliegerfaust

Chaque article que j'ai lu à propos de la décision de l'ITC en faveur de Bombardier disait plus ou moins la même chose: totalement inattendu, une grosse surprise, stupéfiante!

En fait, je pense qu'il n'y avait aucune surprise pour Bombardier et Airbus. Car je suis convaincu qu'ils savaient d'avance que la décision allait leur être favorable. Est-ce que je suggère que tout le processus aurait pu être truqué? Oui.

Jusqu'à présent, je n'ai vu aucune déclaration officielle d'Airbus, mais voici ce que Bombardier avait à dire:

"Nous sommes extrêmement fiers de nos employés, investisseurs et fournisseurs qui ont travaillé ensemble pour mettre sur le marché cet appareil remarquable."

S'ils sont si fiers de leurs employés, dont la plupart sont basés au Canada, pourquoi prévoient-ils déménager leur travail aux États-Unis?

Alain Bellemare, chef de la direction, Bombardier et Tom Enders, chef de la direction d'Airbus, lla soirée avant la décision de l'ITC lors d'un match de hockey des Canadiens de Montréal, le Centre Molson.

Maintenant, voici ce que Delta avait à dire:
«Delta se réjouit de la décision de la Commission du commerce international des États-Unis qui rejette la tentative anticoncurrentielle de Boeing de refuser aux compagnies aériennes américaines et aux États-Unis l'accès du public américain à l'avion CS100 de 110 places ...»

Vraiment? Comment Delta peut-il se réjouir de voir la livraison de la C Series dont ils disposent sur commande être reportée d'au moins trois ans?

Tout d'abord, construire une seconde chaîne de montage à ce stade précoce n'a aucun sens économique . Que ce soit au Canada, aux États-Unis ou ailleurs dans le monde.

Bombardier a besoin de 300 à 600 millions de dollars américains pour construire cette ligne, mais ils n'ont pas d'argent disponible pour ce projet, mis à part les 1 000 millions de dollars que le gouvernement du Québec a investis dans la C Series. L'intention du Québec était-elle de créer des emplois aux États-Unis? Je ne pense pas.

La seule partie qui a des raisons de se réjouir est Airbus. Parce que toute la dépense de construction d'une deuxième chaîne d'assemblage sera entièrement payée par Bombardier . Avec l'argent du Québec, je voudrais vous rappeler.

Nouvelle usine d'assemblage de A320 de Airbus à Mobile en Alabama, EU.

D'ailleurs, pourquoi ne pas terminer la chaîne de montage à Mirabel avant d'en construire une nouvelle à Mobile? Dans le cas où vous ne savez pas déjà, la chaîne de montage de Mirabel n'est pas encore terminée en raison d'un manque d'argent. Voir ma série d'articles en trois parties sur ce sujet: https://www.fliegerfaust.com/mirabel-cseries-production-2482160976.html
En bref, la situation est la suivante: une fois que les avions ont été structurellement assemblés, ils doivent actuellement être déplacés vers un complexe de hangars improvisés, et certains d'entre eux à un fournisseur extérieur, afin d'avoir leur intérieur terminé. C'est parce que la nouvelle installation prévue à cet effet n'a jamais été construite.

L'une des nombreuses raisons pour lesquelles Mirabel ne livre pas autant d'avions qu'il le devrait, c'est que cette installation secondaire improvisée est totalement saturée en ce moment. Donc, une nouvelle installation est vraiment nécessaire et j'entends que Bombardier projette effectivement de déplacer la ligne CRJ de Mirabel, de la relocaliser à Dorval où elle était dans les premiers jours, afin de faire de la place pour la C Series. Voir mon article à ce sujet: https://www.fliegerfaust.com/cseries-production-2511149448.html

J'ai du mal à trouver une justification à la décision de procéder à la construction d'une chaîne de montage aux États-Unis pour la C Series alors qu'en fait, l'installation canadienne n'est même pas encore terminée. Et s'ils n'avaient pas d'argent pour Mirabel, pourquoi en auraient-ils pour Mobile? Ah oui, j'ai oublié, ils ont maintenant de l'argent du Québec.

Si je ressemble à un contribuable frustré, c'est simplement parce que je le suis. En tant que Canadien, j'ai vu mon argent être injecté dans Bombardier de bonne foi. Maintenant, je me sens trahi.

Alain Bellemare PDG de Bombardier Accueillant à Mirabel le PDG de Delta, Edward Bastian lors de la signature du contrat.

Je ne trouve pas d'explication raisonnable pour une chaîne de montage aux États-Unis si ce n'est avoir été forcée de le faire par le gouvernement américain . Ainsi, au lieu d'être fabriqué à 55% aux États-Unis, la C Series sera désormais fabriquée à 85% aux États-Unis, et ce, aux dépens des contribuables canadiens. C'est vraiment incroyable!
Savez-vous combien coûte la construction d'une C Series? Moi non plus. Tout ce que je sais, c'est que Bombardier perd de l'argent pour chacun des constructeurs. En fait, il faudra encore plusieurs années avant de pouvoir réaliser un profit.

D'abord, ils doivent être au bon endroit sur la courbe d'apprentissage. Ils ont également besoin d'améliorer la productivité, qui est actuellement entravée par l'absence d'une installation adéquate pour terminer l'avion lorsqu'ils sortent de la chaîne de montage. Mais ai-je mentionné qu'ils n'avaient pas d'argent pour cela?

Les nouvelles commandes de la C Series sont rares et pourtant le carnet de commandes avoisine les 400 avions, ce qui aurait permis à Mirabel de continuer quelques années de plus. Mais pas si l'ordre Delta est assemblé dans Mobile. Ce qui finira par affamer Mirabel et l'usine ne deviendra jamais rentable parce que le taux de production demeurera beaucoup trop bas. A moins qu'une avalanche de nouvelles commandes n'arrive soudainement.

D'ailleurs ce sera pareil aux Etats-Unis, seulement pire. Parce que, à toutes fins pratiques, Bombardier a vendu un total de 75 avions pour le marché américain. Et ils veulent construire une installation de 600 millions de dollars, certains disent 300 millions car une partie de l'infrastructure nécessaire est déjà prise en compte, pour assembler ces avions alors qu'ils ont déjà une salle d'opération inactive et prête à livrer à Delta dans les mois à venir . Encore une fois, c'est vraiment incroyable!

Des journalistes et des employés de Delta qui visitaient l'intérieur du CS300 de Bombardier pendant sa visite chez Delta

Normalement, Bombardier devrait augmenter considérablement sa production à Mirabel avant de construire une autre chaîne de montage dans un pays différent. Surtout compte tenu du fait que le site existant peut potentiellement produire 280 avions par an (2 X 140). De plus, il y a beaucoup d'autres sites à proximité sur le terrain de Bombardier qui seraient disponibles pour une expansion supplémentaire au cas où ils devraient en produire plus de 280 par année. En effet, le site de Mirabel n'a pas de limites pratiques en termes d'espace et de main-d'œuvre .
Avant de construire une chaîne de montage dans un autre pays, Bombardier devrait déjà produire au moins 280 avions par an, à peu près comme Airbus l'a fait en ouvrant Tianjin en Chine. Pour des raisons politiques, je dois mentionner. Et plus tard à Mobile, en Alabama. Encore une fois, strictement pour des raisons politiques.

Est-il possible que Bombardier construise aussi une chaîne de montage aux États-Unis pour des raisons politiques? Il n'y a aucun doute dans mon esprit à ce sujet.

Mais pourquoi le faire à un stade aussi précoce du développement de la C Series? Peut-être que quelqu'un a tordu les bras, je voudrais suggérer. Car, à mon avis, c'est beaucoup plus qu'un mouvement politique intelligent. En fait, cela me semble être un ultimatum diplomatique.

Maintenant, je dois revenir à Delta, qui doit supporter le fardeau de ce mouvement idiot. Essayez d'imaginer ceci: Delta devait recevoir son premier avion l'été prochain mais il devra maintenant attendre encore trois ans. Est-ce que cela a du sens pour vous? C'est ce que je pensais. Cela vous semble-t-il comme si les cartes avaient été empilées? Ouais moi aussi.

Il semble vraiment qu'une main très puissante ait radicalement changé les plans de Delta pour eux. Je pense que les options étaient assez limitées pour Delta: Vous le faites, ou vous mourez.

Bombardier et Airbus à Montréal travaillent à la conclusion de la transaction entre Airbus et le CSeries Holding dans lequel le gouvernement du Québec est également co-propriétaire à la hauteur de $1.3 milliard.

En ce qui concerne Airbus, nous devons garder à l'esprit qu'ils sont maintenant partenaires de Bombarder dans le programme C Series. Et comme Bombardier, ils veulent que la C Series devienne rentable dès que possible.
Mais comment peuvent-ils réaliser un profit avec deux chaînes de montage à commande minimale situées dans différents pays, et avec un si petit carnet de commandes? Faites-en un très petit carnet de commandes dans le cas de l'usine américaine.

N'essayez pas de comprendre car, depuis le premier jour, rien dans cette saga n'a été logique ou rationnel. Et cela inclut la décision de l'ITC, qui ne fait appel à l'esprit que lorsqu'elle est prise à sa valeur nominale et ne doit pas faire l'objet d'un examen approfondi.

Ne vous méprenez pas, avec cette décision de l'ITC, la justice n'a pas prévalu. Et le bon sens n'a pas gagné non plus. Alors, qui gagne vous demander? Je vais vous laisser comprendre cela. C'est une évidence.

Normand Hamel

L'auteur peut être contacté à l'adresse suivante: normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Avertissement: Les opinions exprimées dans cette publication sont celles de l'auteur. Ils ne prétendent pas refléter les opinions ou opinions de fliegerfaust.com ou de ses autres collaborateurs **

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Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Nov. 21, 2017 02:51PM EST

Making Room for the C Series

In a series of articles published on Fliegerfaust in recent months we have discussed the C Series production issues associated with the lack of proper space to complete the C Series when they come off the assembly line. This situation is about to change dramatically

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4:00am - 09:00 UTC - November 21, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

In a series of articles published on Fliegerfaust in recent months we have discussed the C Series production issues associated with the lack of proper space to complete the C Series when they come off the assembly line. This situation is about to change dramatically.

Rumour has it that CRJ production in Mirabel is preparing to move out and go back to Bombardier's Dorval facility where the CRJ100/200 were assembled at the beginning of the programme.

It is only when the CRJ700/900 were launched that production was moved to Mirabel in 2000 in a brand new facility especially built for that purpose. But it now appears that they are going back to their original location.

This makes a lot of sense. For the CRJ's best years are now behind it and production is at an all-time low. And in Mirabel the CRJ happens to be in the way of the C Series which badly needs more space.

What they are planning to do is to temporarily accelerate production of the CRJ in order to build up inventory for the transition period when they will move production from Mirabel to Dorval, a slightly older facility that is located on the Montréal island.

Once the CRJ will be gone this will leave two additional assembly lines for the C Series, plus six more bays to service the aircraft. Presently the CRJ occupies two separate buildings.

One of these buildings is the final assembly line, which I will call the CRJ FAL, and the other is what I referred to in previous articles as the CRJ hangars and which is presently used as completion centres, preflight hangars and delivery centres, for both the CRJ and C Series.

Let's start with the CRJ hangars. Before the C Series there were 19 bays in the CRJ hangars, all of the same size. This facility was built in the heyday period when the CRJ was very popular and demand was high. This lasted for several years and so far they have sold more than 1,900 aircraft of that type.

But demand has slowed down considerably in recent years and Bombardier took the opportunity in 2011 to modify 13 of those bays to accommodate the larger and heavier C Series.

Today there are only 6 bays left for the CRJ, plus 9 larger bays for the C Series, out of the original 19, for a total of 15 bays. And when the CRJ will be gone we can assume that the remaining 6 small bays will be modified and converted to 4 larger C Series bays, for a total of 13 (9+4).

In the future all those bays will likely be used strictly as preflight hangars and customer aircraft delivery stations.

In the meantime they also use a number of them to complete the C Series aircraft when they comme off the assembly line, just like they always did for the CRJ. This improvised C Series completion centre is what I call FAL 2.

It is important to understand that the final assembly of an aircraft can be done in two phases. For exemple the 737 final assembly is done at Renton in Seattle. There when the airplane comes off the assembly line it is structurally complete but needs to be painted and fitted with customized interiors. That is why the 737 is sent to another location in the Seattle area, called Boeing Field, to be completed before it is delivered to the customer.

The work that is carried out at Renton is what I call FAL 1 for the C Series in Mirabel, and the work done at Boeing Field is what I call FAL 2. For both are final assembly activities, but one looks after the assembly of the airframe while the other deals mainly with the assembly of the airplane's interior. Except that in Mirabel the engines and APU are installed at this final stage as well.

The Global 7000 set-up is even more similar to what Boeing has put in place for the 737. The Global is assembled in Toronto and is flown to Montréal as a green aircraft for completion. So in this case Toronto acts like Renton and Montréal like Boeing Fields. Some 737s are even sent directly to China for completion instead of going to Boeing Field.

In Mirabel the situation is slightly different. There when the aircraft comes off the assembly line it is sent to the modified CRJ hangars which are used as a completion centre (FAL 2) for both the CRJ and C Series, while some of the other bays in that facility are used as preflight hangars and for aircraft deliveries.

All that activity is taking place inside the same building in nine separate bays for the C Series, plus another six bays that can only be used by the CRJ because they have not been modified to accommodate the C Series.

But when FAL 1 will have reached its maximum output FAL 2 won't be able to keep up the pace and that is why they are planning to take FAL 2 out of the modified CRJ hangars. But to go where?

The original plan was to build a dedicated completion centre (FAL 2) right in front of the brand new final assembly building (FAL 1) that was built in 2013. But like I have mentioned several times before they didn't have the money at the time, and they quickly found out that it would be much cheaper to convert the underused CRJ hangars.

But that was a temporary solution, and they knew that one day or another they would have to build a proper FAL 2. And this would also free up some space in the modified CRJ hangars for preflight and delivery activities, which would inevitably be increasing in tune with the ramp-up at FAL 1 and FAL 2.

In the meantime production at FAL 1 has been frozen and remains at an anemic level instead of increasing like it would normally do during a normal ramp up schedule. That is because FAL 2 is presently saturated due to problems with various suppliers and some production issues.

As for the CRJ final assembly building there are two assembly lines inside. One of them is no longer producing aircraft and is being used as a storage area for the C Series that have nowhere to go when they come off the assembly line because FAL 2 is saturated, as mentioned earlier.

Photo: Normand Hamel - June 10, 2017

Since Bombardier had to modify one of the two doors in front of the two assembly lines to accommodate the taller C Series I assume they will have to do the same with the other door when the CRJ will have moved out of there.

However I think both doors are already wide enough to allow the C Series to get through, with or without its winglets installed. So it is essentially a height problem, for the tail does't clear with the original configuration.

Originally the FAL 2 building that they have postponed in 2012 was meant to be a moving line, à la 737, and it would have had four stations in a nose-to-tail configuration that would have allowed the C Series to come in at one end and go out at the other.

This will not be possible with the existing CRJ FAL however, because the two doors are located at the same end. At the opposite end there are only truck doors for aircraft parts delivery. That is where the CRJ comes in, piece by piece, and goes out at the other end as a complete aircraft.

What this means is that when the C Series will arrive from FAL 1 they will have to enter through one of the two hangar doors and proceed down one of the assembly lines, and as each aircraft will progress on that line it will eventually have to make a U-turn to come out in the opposite direction via the other assembly line that runs parallel to it.

That is unless they create an opening at the other end. But I don't know if that would be technically feasible from an architectural point of view. It would be really neat though, because FAL 1 and FAL 2 would be directly in line with each other, and the aircraft coming out of FAL 1 would only have to travel a couple hundred feet to enter inside FAL 2, just like in the original concept.

This move will have a serious impact on the C Series production rate, which will no longer be limited by the FAL 2 capacity.

FAL 1 has the potential to produce at least 140 aircraft per year, and I have the impression that this new FAL 2 might be able to keep up with this very high rate, but I am not absolutely sure. It all depends if they can open up the other end of the CRJ FAL or not.

So when is this transformation going to take place you ask? To be honest I don't know. A lot of this is speculation based on rumours. But you can be sure that I will keep you posted as I learn more about this fascinating development.

Normand Hamel

The author can be contacted at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Oct. 23, 2017 02:00AM EST

Transatlantic Alliance

Airbus - Bombardier

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3:00 (07:00 UCT) - October 23, 2017 - Quebec, Canada, by Normand Hamel for Fliegerfaust.com

The shock

October 16, 2017 will go down in history as a major turning point in commercial aviation when Bombardier announced an alliance with Airbus to commercialize the C Series.

This happened only six months after Boeing initiated an all-out attack on Bombardier in an attempt to kill the C Series.

But this move had the opposite effect of what was intended by Boeing and actually gave a new lease on life to the C Series programme. And in its attempt to weaken Bombardier, Boeing made Airbus stronger than ever.

Unlike Boeing, Airbus' original intention was not to move for the kill, but to proceed by asphyxiation. It would have taken more time, but would have been less brutal and probably more effective.

One way or another, the C Series didn't have much of a chance against the Big Two. But there was always hope that Bombardier would be able to find its place under the sun. However in the end Boeing will have cast too big of a shadow for Bombardier to grow and prosper.

Yet, the C Series was too young and too vigorous to die. So in a desperate attempt to save its precious child Bombardier went to Airbus for protection against Boeing's vicious attacks.

From left to the right :Pierre Beaudoin, Bombardier Chairman of the board - Tom Enders, Airbus CEO - Alain Bellemare, Bombardier President & CEO - Fabrice Brégier, Airbus COO & President of Airbus Commercial Aircraft

The consequences

This transaction opens a new chapter in commercial aviation history and brings the battle in the narrowbody sector to a whole new level. A battle that Boeing is now almost certain to lose.

For the entire 737 business case rests on a single variant, the 737-8, which will progressively get squeezed out of the market by the CS500 and A320, and possibly also by an A320.5 with the same capacity as the MAX 8.

Boeing has all its eggs in the same basket and that basket is about to fall off the sky. Without the 737 Boeing's future is compromised, and this once great company will have to reinvent itself, or face oblivion in the commercial aviation sector.

At the same time Boeing's best friend is now becoming it's worst enemy, and you can be sure that the President of the United States will sanction this deal as if it was his own.

The Montréal visit

Only four days after this deal rocked the planet the new boss was in town: the Air Boss. To watch Tom Enders speak to smiling and cheering Bombardier employees in an empty CRJ hangar in Mirabel was an eerie sight. In fact it was quite surreal.

On stage with Enders were Fabrice Bergier, the president of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, along with Bombardier's top brasses: Rob Dewar, Fred Cromer, Alain Bellemare and Pierre Beaudoin. Everyone on the stage had a huge smile on their face, as if they had just made the Deal of the Century.

Alain Bellemare, Bombardier President & CEO with Tom Enders, Airbus CEO at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal formerly known as Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal October 20, 2017Photo by Graham Hughes, Canadian Press

The situation

Bombardier were in a bind, for all sales prospects had been frozen the instant Boeing filed its fake-news based complaint.

When I heard the announcement of this friendly takeover I almost choked. But a bit of French wine helped me to swallow my nationalistic pride. Yet, it took me several more days to digest this startling news.

And I was not alone, for the whole world was stunned as no one apparently had seen this coming. We all thought that the window of opportunity had closed in 2015 when Airbus rejected Bombardier's offer to take a participation in the C Series programme.

I was relieved at the time that the Gouvernement du Québec had come to the rescue to take Airbus' place. But that could only be a temporary solution, for Bombardier needed a White Night in its fight against Boeing.

The problem was that the market believed in the C Series but not in Bombardier. The latter had a good recovery plan, but supplier issues kept deliveries at a very slow pace. And since each plane delivered brings new cash in, the less deliveries you make the less cash you have on hand.

The slow deliveries, compounded with Boeing's machinations, meant that the whole programme was doomed. It could have survived for a while but Bombardier had to find a solution quickly, otherwise the whole company's future would have been threatened.

So Airbus were approached once again, but this time they were more receptive. Apparently the offer was not much different than the first time, but Airbus were now less preoccupied by urgent issues and the C Series had made tremendous progress in the interval.

The aircraft was now certified and had entered service with two different airlines, both of them extremely satisfied with the performances of the aircraft. Performances that keep improving.

The employees

The employees seem to be relieved. Until now they had lived in uncertainty and many of them have actually lost their jobs in the restructuring. Now the future looks brighter.

My understanding is that everyone working on the C Series will remain an employee of the existing C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership. But make no mistake, from now on you will be working for Airbus because the new partner has a controlling interest.

There are also other concerns that I will try to address in what follows.

The sites

The Mobile plant will only assemble the airplanes that will be sold for the American market. And Mirabel will remain the site where all the other airplanes are assembled.

Since the US represents about 30% of the world market it means that Mirabel will still manufacture and deliver about 70% of the C Series sold worldwide.

Obviously the sales prospects are much better now, and if necessary a second assembly line may eventually have to be built in Mirabel.

This would bring total capacity to 280 airplanes per year, plus what will be produced at Mobile. That would be the limit of this particular area and a new one would have to be selected on the Mirabel site, which still has plenty of space available for expansion.

First A320 assembled at Airbus new plant in Mobile, Alabama , USA

However, the first assembly line in Mirabel has not been completed yet and a secondary assembly line will have to be built to bring the output to 140 a year with the first line.

This might be confusing for the casual observer because Airbus and Boeing have continuous assembly lines, whereas in Mirabel the lines are split. That's because of the specific area that had originally been selected.

Bombardier wanted to take advantage of the existing CRJ facilities and planned to build the C Series assembly lines around them.

However, the space and configuration that were available in that particular area made it necessary to split the initial assembly line (FAL) in two sections that would be 200 feet apart: one FAL assembling the aircraft's basic structure and the other completing the interior in a separate building.

An identical second assembly line can be built parallel to the first one and the buildings would be contiguous in a 2+2 configuration; or if you prefer, one pair of FAL 1 facing a pair of FAL 2.

Airbus Mobile Plant in Alabama, USA

The next step

So where do we go from here? Well, first they have to answer the phones that haven't stopped ringing since the deal was announced. Apparently many airlines are eager to place an order now that they know the programme's future has been secured.

But don't hold your breath, for no new orders will be announced until this deal is sealed, sometime in the second half of 2018.

In the meantime Bombardier will be working on the design of the new Alabama assembly line. Who will pay for the new line is not clear. But it will be built nevertheless and as fast as possible.

Apparently it might start producing Delta's first airplanes as early as 2019. Delta don't mind to wait because they know they will be getting the best aircraft in the world for what they plan to do: increase their share of a long neglected market.

Of course a new building would have to be erected on the existing Mobile site, but some of the tooling to assemble the aircraft is already available. These are leftovers from the time when the first flight test aircraft (FTV) were assembled in an improvised CRJ hangar called Hangar Y, pending construction of a proper final assembly building.

The change

What is Airbus bringing to the party? First they will bring their formidable sales force. Add to this a considerable marketing savoir-faire. And most importantly they will support the C Series with an infrastructure that would have taken Bombardier decades to develop on its own.

Another important aspect is the clout Airbus brings to the negotiations with suppliers, many of whom they share. In fact Airbus believes it can lower the C Series production costs by as much as 10%.

The winners

The C Series is the biggest winner here. It will not only survive, but will also continue to thrive and evolve. And most importantly, the employees can now look at the future with supreme confidence.

Obviously Airbus also stands to benefit a great deal from this new endeavour. For they now have access to state-of-the art technologies that will be implemented in their future designs.

Mainly they get access to the Resin Transfer Infusion technology developed by Bombardier. They are also interested in the C Series cockpit and avionics, which are more advanced than what Airbus has been using on the A320 and various other models.

The losers

Bombardier is losing a lot in this transaction. For its adventure in commercial aviation is practically over now. However it is likely to remain the largest business aircraft manufacturer.

It certainly took a lot of guts, and brains, to do what they did. And I would like to take this opportunity to salute the extraordinary vision of Laurent Beaudoin, the son-in-law of Joseph-Armand Bombardier who created this world-class company in 1942.

Boeing is definitely the biggest loser in this transaction and the only one responsible for the fiasco. They have upset just about everyone, starting with their own customers.

Their ill-advised maneuvers gathered support only from Washington. And even that is now up in the air. And in order to survive Boeing will remain one of the most subsidized company in the US.

The wait

We still have to hear the ITC ruling. But no matter what the outcome is the C Series ordered for the US market will be assembled in Alabama. And while we are waiting for the court decision Bombardier will start working on a plan to build a C Series final assembly line in Mobile.

Various instances still have to approve the deal, but this should be a simple formality. We can expect everything to unfold very quickly because Delta are waiting for their planes.

I expect everything to work fine, unless Boeing throws another monkey wrench into the Air Bomber plans of attack. No matter what, I consider this a done deal.

Alain Bellemare, Bombardier President & CEO with Fabrice Brégier, Airbus COO & President of Airbus Commercial Aircraft

The French connection

The fact that Alain Bellemare holds an aeronautical engineering degree from the École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs en Construction Aéronautique (ENSICA), in Toulouse, may have given him the connections he needed to open the doors of the Airbus fortress.

The beauty of this transaction is that the two companies share common languages and similar cultural traits. In fact both communicate internally and externally in English, and both share the European culture, which is still very present in Montréal 375 years after it was founded by people who had crossed the Atlantic in search of a new beginning.

And a new beginning is now also offered to the C Series with this transatlantic alliance.

Normand Hamel

The author can be contacted at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Normand Hamel
Sep. 19, 2017 01:29AM EST
Photo: (C)YUL Plane Spotter Twitter : @yulplanespotter

CSeries : Bombardier won’t be able to deliver on their promises

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2:30am - September 19, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

Bombardier are about to increase both the production rate and the delivery rate of the C Series in the coming weeks.

I have recently discussed the space problem they have in Mirabel, in a series of three articles. The main purpose of this exercise was to give us an idea how many aircraft are presently in the final stages of completion before delivery.

In Mirabel the final assembly line is split in two segments that are located in two separate facilities. Therefore it is important to maintain an equilibrium in the output between the main final assembly line (FAL 1) and the secondary assembly line (FAL 2).

Obviously if production rates were higher at FAL 1 than at FAL 2 it would not take long before the newly assembled aircraft would start piling up. And that's exactly what's happening right now in Mirabel.

My understanding is that the equilibrium will eventually be restored after Bombardier will have raised the delivery rate to a minimum of three aircraft per month later this Fall.

Until recently production in FAL 1 could not be increased significantly because of the abnormally high number of aircraft in FAL 2. This was due to a number of reasons, most of them being related to supplier issues.

Photo: Normand Hamel

As I write this there is a total of 14 aircraft in the pipeline downstream of FAL 1, and only a few of them have been completed.

At the start of the year Bombardier were announcing 30 to 35 deliveries for the entire year. But when the situation became less favourable they simply maintained that at least 30 aircraft would be delivered before the end of the year. And more recently they again attempted to lower our expectations and were now saying that around 30 aircraft would be delivered in 2017.

I always had doubts about these claims and I didn't think they would hold the test of time. But since we were approaching the end of the year I expected Bombardier to take the opportunity offered by the big media event that was held in Mirabel last week to lower our expectations yet again.

That's why I was completely taken aback when the new director of the C Series programme, Istifan Ghanem, said last week that they now had all the C Series parts they needed and confirmed that they expected to deliver 30 C Series this year.

I am sorry but I don't think this is still possible, and that's why I believe Bombardier won't be able to deliver on their promises.

And if you want me to be more specific, I am ready to stick my neck and say that a maximum of 22 aircraft will be delivered this year.

How did I arrive at this number you ask? It's quite simple, I relied on what the customers had to say about their own fleet. And here is what they have been telling us lately.

1- Swiss said they would take delivery of another six aircraft before the end of the year.

That was before they had MSN 55012 in their fleet and it included an additional four CS300, plus the two CS100 that have been on hold in Mirabel for about nine months now.

So before the end of the year Swiss is expected to receive five more aircraft, possibly in the following order: 55013, 55014, 55015, 50018 and 50019. Note that the first three are CS300, while the last two are CS100.

2- As for airBaltic they said they would take delivery of one more aircraft this year, which is a CS300 of course.

This is the aircraft that was sent to Avianor (MSN 55016). It is not expected to be back at Bombardier until the end of September though. So it will likely be delivered to airBaltic sometime in October, which should give them plenty of time to train additional crews before the Christmas rush.

3- Korean Air are expected to take delivery of five aircraft this year. And the first one should make its first flight soon, for MSN 55018 has already been fuelled up and the engines are running.

MSN 55017, which would normally come off the assembly line first, will not be delivered until next November. I am not sure why exactly, but I think it is related to a production issue with one of the major structural components, like a section of the fuselage or the empennage.

After completion all KAL aircraft will have to be equipped with a satellite IFE system that will allow them to offer extended Internet services to their passengers. I think 55018 will be the first C Series in service to fly with this system, which remains an option.

As Sylvain Faust has reported the work will be carried out by an outside vendor that is located at Dorval airport.

According to one delivery schedule I have seen on the Web, KAL should take two aircraft in October, two more in November, and a last one in December. For a total of five CS300 going to South Korea before the end of the year. Unless there is a war, of course.

Photo: CYUL Plane Spotter Twitter @yulplanespotter

Apparently quite a few people are still convinced that a minimum of 30 C Series will be delivered this year. This shows how powerful corporate propaganda can be.

But in my view the reality is very different than what Bombardier want us to believe. For I make a difference between claims made in front of the press, à la Pierre Beaudoin in 2011-2012 announcing first flight before the end of the year, and firm commitments made to existing customers.

It is important to understand that without firm commitments on the part of the aircraft manufacturer it would be very difficult for the operators to prepare in advance for new aircraft deliveries.

We have to keep in mind that Bombardier has delivered the C Series at a rate of only two aircraft per month since March of this year, with no delivery at all in January and February. But they want us to believe that they can suddenly jump to five aircraft per month because they now have all the parts they need. I wish it was that easy, but it's not.

When FAL 2 are done with an aircraft it is handed over to Preflight where it has to undergo a string of tests, both on the ground and in the air. And after that the operator has to do an elaborate acceptance check before taking the aircraft home.

All this takes time and space and Bombardier is quickly running out of both.

Photo: SWISS Instagram: marihoe

According to my own estimates Bombardier should deliver a total of 22 aircraft in 2017, to three different customers:

Swiss

Already delivered: three CS100 and three CS300

To be delivered: three CS300 and two CS100

Total for 2017: 11 aircraft

AirBaltic

Already delivered: five CS300

To be delivered: one CS300

Total for 2017: 6 aircraft

Korean Air

Already delivered: zero

To be delivered: five CS300

Total for 2017: 5 aircraft

Grand total for 2017: 22 aircraft

If Bombardier were to prove me wrong next January, believe me nothing would please me more. I am actually afraid to be right on this one because I know that the more aircraft they will deliver the more revenues they will have.

But let's face it, not a single C Series has been delivered in the past three weeks and we are already in the second half of September. But if everything goes well two CS300 can possibly be delivered to Swiss before the end of the month.

However if they were to deliver only two aircraft in September this would mean that in order to remain faithful to their promises to deliver 30 aircraft this year they would have only three months to deliver the remaining 17 aircraft.

That's an average of more than five aircraft per month, and perhaps as many as two aircraft per week for the last few weeks of the year.

Photo: Normand Hamel

As I write this they would still have to deliver 19 aircraft according to the official script, but a more realistic 11 aircraft according to what I believe were confidential commitments made to the three customers that are scheduled to receive some aircraft this year: Swiss, airBaltic and Korean Air.

Of course I could be wrong about this. But what I like about my scenario is that it represents a more realistic delivery rate increase from two to three aircraft per month. And this bodes well for next year.

For we can already anticipate an average delivery rate between three and four aircraft per month for next year, for a total of perhaps 42 aircraft. That's my estimate for 2018.

If you have any information in regard to the C Series programme, feel free to contact me, confidentially, at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

Normand Hamel

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Normand's Run-Up Pad
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Normand Hamel
Sep. 12, 2017 01:30AM EST
C Series Final Assembly building - Photo: Normand Hamel, June 10, 2017

Mirabel is Bursting at the Seams, Part 3

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2:30am - September 12, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

In Part 1 of this survey we established that there were too many aircraft in the pipeline for the capacity of the secondary assembly line, the one we call FAL 2.

We had figured out that there were 14 aircraft in the pipeline, but only 9 bays to take them inside FAL 2. Since to my knowledge no aircraft were parked outside they had to be somewhere else. But where?

According to Sylvain Faust one was put inside one of the six bays inside Hangar X, which is the section normally occupied by the CRJ. The problem is that the C Series is too large to go through any of the six remaining doors at Hangar X. But apparently they found a way to pass one through. But it was a very delicate operation indeed.

But that still left four aircraft without a shelter. In my previous post I suggested that at least one might perhaps be stored in the paint shop. Yet, if this were so there would still be three aircraft without a home. However, in the meantime I came to realize that I had forgotten about a very important detail.

CRJ Final Assembly buildingPhoto: Normand Hamel, June 10, 2017

Across the tarmac from FAL 2 we find the CRJ Final Assembly building. That building is similar in concept to the C Series Final Assembly building (the Big White Building). But it is older and considerably smaller, and it does not benefit from the high technology that has been implemented in the newer building.

Like for the C Series Final Assembly, the CRJ Final Assembly has two lines where the CRJs are assembled. But today one of the two lines is no longer active because the production rate has been considerably reduced.

When I visited Mirabel last June I had taken some pictures of that CRJ Final Assembly building. The reason I took those pictures was because I had noticed a cut-out in one of the two hangar doors of that building. But I did not understand at the time why this modification had been performed.

It is only when one of our readers mentioned to me that one of the two lines was used to store surplus C Series that I understood what was going on. For it forced me to take another look at my pictures, and that's when everything fell into place.

The situation is this: At the end of the CRJ Final Assembly building there are two hangar doors of the same width, but one of them now has a cut-out above to make room for taller aircraft. And the door that has been modified is the one facing the assembly line that is no longer in use.

This modification allows the C Series to move freely in and out of the CRJ Final Assembly building.

That is where MSN 50018 has been hiding for almost nine months now. And the last two aircraft that came off the assembly line, 55024 and 55025, are also stored there because there is no room left for them in FAL 2.

Obviously Bombardier had a contingency plan in case FAL 2 would become saturated. Otherwise they would not have gone through the trouble of making those modifications, which were carried out at the same time the CRJ hangars were modified in 2011-2012.

CRJ StorePhoto: Normand Hamel, June 10, 2017

However, the saturation seems to have occurred much earlier than expected.

That's because they had problems with several suppliers, and as a consequence of this production at FAL 2 has been very slow. Which in turn impedes progress in FAL 1 and retards deliveries. For everything seems to revolve around FAL 2:

1- The production rate at FAL 1 is tuned to the production rate at FAL 2.

2- The certification rate in Preflight is also tuned to the production rate at FAL 2.

3- The delivery rate is in turn tuned to the certification rate in Preflight.

Clearly FAL 2 is where the bottleneck is.

The problem is that FAL 2 cannot finish the aircraft fast enough, and therefore the new aircraft that arrive from FAL 1 have no place to go, because FAL 2 is already full. And since the same building is shared by the Delivery Centre, Preflight and FAL 2, they are all scrambling for space.

To alleviate these problems, and bring some relief to FAL 2, Bombardier have outsourced the completion of some aircraft to Avianor, who are located on the other side of the Mirabel airport. Avianor acts in effect as an auxiliary FAL 2.

So in the future some of the aircraft coming out of FAL 1 will be sent directly to Avianor, instead of going to FAL 2, like was done with MSN 55016 last June. For the work carried out by Avianor is more or less the same as the work they accomplish at FAL 2. In fact it's like having a second FAL 2.

I don't know how this will pan out over the long term, but in the meantime Avianor are not where they are supposed to be at this stage. For after two months they are still struggling with 55016 and they remain behind the learning curve for the time being.

Therefore Avianor shouldn't make much of an impact in 2017. However in 2018 they might start helping Bombardier to bring C Series production to higher levels. But I doubt this exceptional measure will be enough.

For what Mirabel needs most right now is additional space and more efficient infrastructures.

Because even if they sorted out all their problems with their suppliers they would still be lacking the facilities required to sustain higher rates of production.

The first thing that needs to be done is to take FAL 2 out of Hangar Y in order to give the space back to Preflight. But they would need to build a proper Secondary Assembly building before they can do this.

At this point some of our readers are probably asking themselves what difference a new Secondary Assembly building (FAL 2) would make. Well, bear with me because the situation is complex. For this project encompasses a number of buildings, some already built, plus others that will be part of this expansion.

First of all this new facility will be located only two hundred feet across the tarmac from the existing Final Assembly building. This means no more long transits between FAL 1 and FAL 2.

Engine Integration HallPhoto: Normand Hamel, March 12, 2017

The Secondary Assembly building will also have a moving line, with four stations in a nose-to-tail configuration. And the last station will be at the same level as the existing Engine Integration Hall, where the engines are prepared before they are installed on the aircraft. When ready the engines will be sent from this building directly to the aircraft, already attached to their pylon, as one complete assembly.

Since the two buildings will be interconnected the engines will only have to travel a few feet to reach the aircraft on the moving line. Again, this means no more long transits between the existing engine facility, which was built in 2012, and FAL 2.

However, before the Secondary Assembly building is erected they will have to build a new store, which must be built first, because it will sit between the existing CRJ store and the new Secondary Assembly building.

But that's not all, for they also need to build a new paint shop, which will be contiguous with the existing paint shop. But it will be larger and the C Series winglets won't have to be removed like is the case right now because the hangar doors are too narrow. And the CS500 will also be able to fit inside the two new bays, which would not be possible with the existing facilities.

So as you can see there is a lot more to come. The question is when.

The problem is that Bombardier are still in a recovery mode and they probably don't have enough money for an undertaking of this magnitude. Therefore they may find themselves in some sort of Catch 22 situation.

For without money they cannot expand, and without the expansion they cannot improve the delivery rate, and higher delivery rates is what Bombardier need to get the cash to expand.

The delivery rate is what we will discuss next time.

If you hold any useful information about C Series production feel free to contact me, confidentially, at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

Normand Hamel

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Bombardier C Series and CRJ Series Assembly - Mirabel Airport, Quebec, Canada

Mirabel is Bursting at the Seams, Part 2

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14:00 - September 8, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

C Series production ramp up is slower than expected and there are a number of reasons for this.

Pratt & Whitney are an easy target but I don't think they are the only ones to blame. My understanding is that P&W are actually able to supply Bombardier with all the engines they need for the current pace.

But will P&W be able to supply more engines when Bombardier will ramp up production? It depends on how fast the ramp up will be.

Right now C Series production is at approximately three aircraft per month and the ramp up is extremely slow because a number of suppliers have some production issues, while others have quality issues.

Until those problems are sorted out it will not be possible for Bombardier to increase production to higher levels. Besides, Bombardier also have problems of their own.

They have lost a great deal of expertise in the restructuring and this is impacting productivity. The restructuring also put a stop to several projects, one of them being the construction of a secondary assembly line.

The first C Series to enter service was delivered 15 months ago. And today there are 18 aircraft flying with Swiss (11) and airBaltic (7). That represents a delivery rate of 1.3 aircraft per month for that period.

Since March 2017 the delivery rate has been rock-steady at 2 aircraft per month.

Considering all the technology involved in the production of the C Series the pace should be much higher at this stage.

What we can expect for the coming months is a delivery rate of 3 aircraft per month for the rest of the year. That should bring total deliveries to 22 aircraft for the entire year. Which is way below expectations. I will discuss this in more details in an upcoming article.

In Part 1 of this survey I mentioned that there were too many aircraft in the pipeline and that there was not enough room to put them all inside. But some readers were quick to point out that MSN 55013 and 55014 were flying. Indeed they are, but that doesn't change anything and I will try to explain why so that our readers can have a better appreciation of the situation.

Bombardier Facility at Mirabel Airport, Quebec, Canada

In 2011 CRJ production was at an all-time low and the CRJ hangars were underused. At that time Mirabel was preparing itself for the coming of the C Series, which was still in the detailed design phase, which means they were just starting to cut metal for the first aircraft parts.

During that period there were three big projects at Bombardier Aerospace: the Learjet 85, the C Series and the Global 7000. This was way too ambitious for a company like Bombardier. And having bitten more than they could chew they had a major indigestion.

Bombardier fell victim of their ambitions and they had to restructure big time. The first thing they did was to dismantle Bombardier Aerospace, which had been created after the acquisition of Canadair in 1986, Shorts in 1989, Learjet in 1990, and de Havilland of Canada in 1992.

Pierre Beaudoin, who was the CEO at the time, created three new entities that would report directly to him: Aerostructures and Engineering Services, Business Aircraft and Commercial Aircraft.

Thousands of employees were let go and many projects were cancelled. One project that survived was the construction of the Final Assembly building. This is the Big White Building that we can see in the picture at the top.

That Final Assembly is a state-of-the-art building that has the capacity to produce up to 140 C Series per year, and perhaps even more.

But this Final Assembly building (FAL 1) was meant to feed a Secondary Assembly building across the tarmac, which was never built because of a lack of money.

Construction of that Secondary Assembly building was not cancelled though, but only postponed. Today they need this Secondary Assembly building more than ever because they have at lest 350 aircraft to deliver.

Right now they are using the CRJ hangars that were modified to fit the bigger and heavier C Series inside.

That CRJ hangar complex originally had 19 doors for the CRJ. But after the modifications there are now only 15 doors left, 6 of them for the CRJ and 9 for the C Series.

They removed four doors to make room for larger doors in order to accommodate the bigger C Series. Six doors have not been modified however and they are reserved for the CRJ.

The CRJ section is called Hangar X and the two C Series sections are called Hangar Y and Hangar Z respectively.

Hangar Y is where the first five FTVs were assembled. So the first aircraft that was built in the brand new Final Assembly building was actually the sixth complete C Series ever assembled, sporting the MSN 50006, the first production aircraft.

There are nine C Series bays in total, which are shared between Hangar Y and Hangar Z. These are the two sections I call FAL 2.

But it's actually a lot more than a Secondary Assembly building, for it also houses the Preflight hangars; and it is also used as a delivery centre for the C Series, and theoretically for the CRJ as well, but there is absolutely no room left for the CRJ at the moment

C Series Final Assembly (FAL 1)

When the aircraft come off the assembly line in Final Assembly (FAL 1), they are sent to FAL 2 for completion. And while they are on their way to FAL 2 they make a stop at the paint shop for about a week.

The responsibility of FAL 2 is to finish the aircraft. Most of it is cabin work, which can be tidiest work that is often carried out under customer supervision. FAL 2 is also where they install the engines and the APU on the aircraft.

When all the work has been completed the aircraft is handed over to Preflight next door where they will prepare it for flight testing. The main responsibility of Preflight is to certify the aircraft. And when this is done they call the customer in to carry out the acceptance checks before taking the aircraft to its home base.

Normally the secondary assembly line would have been located in a separate building, and Preflight would have had their own hangars, and the finished aircraft would be handed over to their owners in a dedicated delivery centre.

My understanding is that they originally intended to modify the CRJ hangars to make room for Preflight in Hangar Y, while using Hangar Z as a delivery centre for both the CRJ and C Series.

Used this way Hangar Y and Hangar Z would have been able to sustain much higher rates, possibly up to 120 a year, but I am not sure exactly what the maximum capacity would be.

One thing is certain though: As they are used right now, that is as FAL 2 + Preflight + Delivery Centre, they are totally inadequate for higher rates. For the production of the C Series is only starting and the facility is already saturated, literally bursting at the seams.

First of all they don't have a proper store to put all the cabin stuff, the engines, the APUs, etc. And the existing FAL 2 is located far away from the engine integration hall where the engines are prepared before they are sent to the aircraft. And the existing paint shop, which has to support both the CRJ and the C series, also has a limited capacity, and the CS500 will not fit inside.

All of this had been addressed in a very efficient way in the original plan.

However, this plan was never implemented because they did not have enough money for the construction of a proper Secondary Assembly building adjacent to the integration hall; and a store for aircraft parts; and a new paint shop dedicated to the C Series, including the CS500.

As for the Final Assembly building it had already been paid for by the Gouvernement du Québec as part of the initial subsidies that were allocated to Bombardier by various governments at the time of the C Series launch at Farnborough, in 2008.

In my next post I will continue to discuss this saga in more details.

End of Part 2

If you hold any useful information about C Series production feel free to contact me, confidentially, at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

Normand Hamel

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Sep. 06, 2017 09:29AM EST
Bombardier Mirabel Airport Facility

Mirabel is Bursting at the Seams - Part 1

C Series Factory

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10:30 - September 6, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

Bombardier is about to increase the C Series delivery rate while Mirabel is already bursting at the seams.

The next aircraft to come off the assembly line was supposed to be MSN 55027 according to one source, and MSN 55025 according to another. Obviously it cannot be both at the same time. So I had to verify these contradictory informations and I found out that the truth lies in between the two.

In fact MSN 55026 is the next aircraft that is due to come out of the final assembly line, while MSN 55025 is the last one that was delivered to the secondary assembly line for completion.

The final assembly line is the brand new building that was erected in 2013 (see picture above) at the Bombardier plant in Mirabel and where all the C Series, except for the first five FTVs, have been assembled to this day.

Inside that huge building there are two lines of three stations each, and these lines are fully interchangeable; which means any C Series variant can be built on either line and at any time, be it a CS100, CS300 or CS500.

When the aircraft comme off the final assembly line they are structurally complete but they have no interiors and no engines.

They then have to be moved to a secondary assembly line where the cabin equipment is installed, like wall panels, overhead bins, carpets, seats, galleys and toilets. That is also where the APU and the engines are installed, and where some preliminary tests are carried out.

Bombardier had originally planned to erect a secondary building alongside the brand new final assembly line. However, it was around this time that they started to run out of cash and therefore they had to postpone that portion of the project.

They still needed a facility though where they would be able to complete the aircraft when they come out of the assembly line, and that is why they decided to modify a substantial portion of the existing CRJ hangars, which had become underused by then, instead of going with a new construction that would have been built to be able to sustain much higher rates.

That decision made them save a great deal of money, but it was only meant to be a temporary solution until Bombardier would regain some financial stability.

From this point on I will call the final assembly building FAL 1, and the modified CRJ hangars FAL 2. FAL stands for Final Assembly Line.

If MSN 55026 is indeed the next aircraft that is scheduled to comme out of the final assembly line (FAL 1) this would mean there are already too many aircraft in the pipeline, as there would be no space to fit them all inside the FAL 2 hangars and they could find themselves in a situation where they would have to park somer aircraft outside.

There were already four C Series parked outside, but those were in long term storage for various reasons and have already been accounted for.

And if MSN 55025 is indeed the last aircraft that was delivered to FAL 2 this would also mean that there are presently at least 13 aircraft over there.

Please bear with me because this is a fairly complex situation and I will try to make this as clear as possible.

The next aircraft scheduled to be delivered to its customer is 55013. This one belongs to Swiss and would normally be the oldest aircraft in the current pipeline. It's not really the case though. I will break this down to help you visualize the situation:

MSN 55013, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 are presently in the FAL 2 pipeline, for a total of 13 aircraft. Note that all of them are CS300.

But it's actually more complicated than that, for at this stage of my account I need to tell you that completion of 55016's interior has been outsourced and the aircraft has been transferred to another facility located on the other side of the Mirabel airport, which belongs to Avianor.

This is the first of a long, but finite, series of aircraft that will be sent to Avianor to help completing the aircraft when they come out of FAL 1.

If you wonder why they are doing this, there are two reasons that can explain it: one is a lack of space at FAL 2, and the other is to help them to increase the C Series delivery rate.

My understanding is that Bombardier successfully sold the idea to the unionized workforce.

So if we subtract from the list the aircraft that is currently at Avianor, and I assume there will always be one there at any given time over the next few years, we are down to twelve aircraft inside the FAL 2 hangars.

But my understanding is that 50018 has been stored there for a very long time and 50019, which is its twin brother, was recently taken out of storage outside and both of them are now being completed in order to prepare them for delivery. That puts two more aircraft in FAL 2, for a total of 14 (13 - 1 + 2 = 14).

But there are only nine bays in that facility to take these aircraft in. This implies that as many as five aircraft would have to be placed somewhere else (14 - 9 = 5).

According to Sylvain Faust at least one of them had to be put inside that section of the CRJ hangars that have not been modified to accommodate the larger C Series (six bays). And apparently it was a real tour de force to bring it in because the door opening was too small for the C Series, which is taller than the CRJ.

See my previous article http://www.fliegerfaust.com/bombardier-is-running-out-of-space-and-out-of-time-2453962594.html on Fliegerfaust.

This leaves four aircraft without a home. But I don't know where they have put them because to my knowledge none of them has been parked outside.

As I have already said there were four aircraft outside in long term storage and they had already been accounted for. One of them (50019) has since been brought back inside FAL 2.

Since there are three bays in the paint shop, perhaps they can park one or two aircraft inside.

One of the bays is more or less permanently occupied by a C Series undergoing a paint job, an operation that normally takes about a week. And one of the other bays is occasionally required for the CRJ, which is delivered at a relatively slow pace nowadays.

So I assume that one or two bays at the paint shop might become available from time to time to park surplus aircraft when required.

But all this implies they would have to play musical chairs with various aircraft, depending on the availability of additional space.

And I imagine that when this becomes necessary, either in the paint shop or in the CRJ hangars that have not been modified, the employees involved in the operation must have the impression of being asked to shuffle deck chairs while the ship is sinking…

End of Part 1.

If you hold any useful information about C Series production feel free to contact me, confidentially, at the following address: normand@fliegerfaust.com

Normand Hamel

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Aug. 15, 2017 08:14AM EST
Photo: CYUL Plane Spotter

Bombardier livrera 22 C Series en 2017

En 2017 Bombardier livrera 22 C Series à trois compagnies aériennes différentes. Vous l'aurez lu pour la première fois ici sur le site de Fliegerfaust

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(google auto translated English version available here)

En 2017 Bombardier livrera 22 C Series à trois compagnies aériennes différentes. Vous l'aurez lu pour la première fois ici sur le site de Fliegerfaust.

Cela n'engage cependant que moi, qui est assez fou pour faire une telle prédiction alors que les dirigeants de Bombardier ne cessent de répéter qu'ils livreront au moins 30 avions avant la fin de l'année.

Mais si les dirigeants de Bombardier ont raison j'aimerais bien savoir à qui sont destinés les appareils supplémentaires.

D'après les informations qui sont publiquement disponibles il ne reste plus que 12 C Series à livrer d'ici la fin de l'année. Ce que Bombardier devrait être en mesure de réaliser sans trop de difficultés malgré les problèmes qu'éprouvent encore Pratt & Whitney à livrer tous les moteurs dont aurait besoin Bombardier pour satisfaire aux demandes de ses clients.

Je pense en particulier à Swiss qui se trouve dans l'obligation de louer à grands frais des appareils sur le marcher des usagés pour répondre à ses besoins courants.

Car Bombardier n'a pas été en mesure de livrer à Swiss les appareils promis à cause des divers problèmes qu'elle a éprouvés jusqu'à maintenant avec certains fournisseurs.

Pratt & Whitney étant le plus médiatisé d'entre eux car Airbus rencontre des problèmes similaires avec ce fournisseur de moteurs et qui sont peut-être encore plus graves que ceux de Bombardier.

Seuls trois transporteurs sont présentement inscrits au calendrier des livraisons. Il s'agit de Swiss, airBaltic et Korean Air.

Swiss a déjà pris livraison cette année de 3 CS100 et 2 CS300. D'ici la fin de l'année elle viendra chercher quatre autres CS300 et deux autres CS100. Avec les 5 CS100 qu'on lui a livrés en 2016 cela portera la flotte de C Series opérés par Swiss à seize appareils en tout.

Il restera donc 14 CS300 à livrer en 2018, pour une total de trente appareils, comprenant 10 CS100 et 20 CS300. Sans compter les 30 C Series qu'elle a en option et qu'elle ne manquera sûrement pas d'exercer tant elle est satisfaite de cet avion.

AirBaltic opère déjà 7 CS300 et elle viendra en chercher un autre d'ici la fin de l'année. Cela portera à huit le nombre de C Series opérés par airBaltic.

Il en restera donc deux autres à lui livrer en 2018, en plus des dix appareils pour lesquels elle s'est réservé des droits d'acquisition.

Tous sont jusqu'à présent des CS300. Mais elle pourrait bien commander des CS100 plus tard car elle en aurait besoin pour remplacer les plus petits avions dans sa flotte.

Il ne reste plus que Korean Air qui a en commande 10 CS300, plus dix autres en option et auxquels pourrait s'ajouter les dix appareils pour lesquels elle s'est réservé des droits d'acquisition, pour un total de 30 CS300.

Korean Air pourrait prendre livraison de son premier C Series dès le mois de septembre si tout va bien. Plusieurs observateurs s'attendent que cet évènement soit fortement médiatisé. Un avion aux couleurs de Korean pourrait d'ailleurs faire partie du décor lors de la journée des investisseurs qui est prévue en septembre.

Il est prévu que Korean Air prenne livraison d'un total de 5 CS300 en 2017. Les cinq autres suivront en 2018.

Si on additionne ensemble les appareils qui restent à livrer en 2017 on arrive à un total de douze. Soit six avions pour Swiss, un autre pour airBaltic, plus les cinq nouveaux appareils destinés à Korean Air.

Avec les 10 C Series déjà livrés en 2017 on arrive à un total de vingt-deux avions pour l'ensemble de l'année 2017.

Si certains lecteurs détiennent des informations additionnelles concernant le nombre de livraisons prévues en 2017 j'apprécierais si vous pouviez communiquer avec moi, en toute confidentialité, à l'adresse suivante: normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Normand's Run-Up Pad
Normand's Run-Up Pad Bombardier Aerospace
Normand Hamel
Aug. 07, 2017 08:29AM EST

C Series Production is Stuck in Second Gear

Bombardier still maintain today that they will deliver 30 C Series aircraft this year. But the delivery rate remains at two aircraft per month after eight months

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9:00 - August 7, 2017 - Quebec, Canada

Bombardier still maintain today that they will deliver 30 C Series aircraft this year. But the delivery rate remains at two aircraft per month after eight months. And if it stays there any longer it will become increasingly difficult for Bombardier to meet their objectives.

Let's take a look at the 2017 deliveries so far: January: 0; February: 0; March: 2; April: 1; May: 2; June: 2; July: 2; August: 2 (projected).

At the beginning of the year we could already sense that something had gone wrong: For after a strong December there were no deliveries at all for a period of more than two months.

Apparently this was mainly due to quality control problems at aircraft interior supplier Zodiac. My understanding is that the situation is now under control. Yet, the aircraft delivery rate remains anemic.

The most striking feature of the delivery rate is that it remains stable at two aircraft per month.

This is not normal because we are supposed to see a production ramp up at this stage. After all the C Series has been in service for more than a year now. But we don't see any progress at all. In fact the delivery rate has remained constant at two aircraft per month for six months in a row, as if C Series production was stuck in second gear.

To be honest I don't know what's going on. But my understanding of the situation leads me to believe that production cannot easily be raised above the current rate because Pratt & Whitney may not be in a position to supply fast enough all the engines that would be required for a normal ramp-up.

Today P&W are barely able to supply enough engines for the current rate. The problem is that this rate is not sustainable if Bombardier are to achieve their goal of delivering at least 30 aircraft this year.

However, some progress have recently been made at P&W, and Bombardier now expect them to increase their production output so that they could deliver more aircraft. These expectations are based on the fact that two new factories have recently started to produce additional fan blades, which were not produced in sufficient quantities before.

Early production runs had a 70% rejection rate due to quality control problems. The acceptance rate is now at 75%, and production of fan blades has tripled. But there are still a number of issues with other engine parts as well. So despite their intense efforts it may take a while before they can raise production to the required level.

When all those issues will have been resolved we may see more C Series aircraft leaving the Mirabel factory, perhaps towards the end of the summer or early fall.

Still, I don't anticipate a big ramp-up because the delivery schedule does not warrant a rapid production increase. Because of the logistics involved Bombardier and their customers obviously did not want to take too many risks and the delivery schedule was kept at what was viewed as the most realistic level.

I took a close look at what appeared to me as the most plausible schedule and I now expect no more than 25 aircraft to be delivered before the end of the year.

Yet Bombardier still maintain that 30 aircraft will be delivered this year.

Actually, before the Paris Air Show they were projecting between 30 and 35 deliveries. But then the language started to change and they were now saying at least 30 for the year. And at the last quarterly review presentation they were now down to around 30.

It looks to me like a carefully worded lowering of the expectations: 30 to 35; at least 30; around 30.

In order to figure out how many airplanes will likely be delivered this year I have made some projections for each customer:

1. Swiss are scheduled to receive four more CS300 this year and there is a strong possibility that before the end of the year they will also take delivery of the two CS100 they have in long-term storage at Mirabel. They have taken delivery of five aircraft so far this year.

2. AirBaltic will take a maximum of eight aircraft this year. They have already taken delivery of four aircraft and are expected to get another four in the coming months.

3. Korean Air are the next customer in line to receive their first C Series, possibly as early as September. Their first aircraft will soon come out of the paint shop. They are expected to take delivery of five aircraft in the last four months of the year.

If we do the count we get a total of 24 deliveries for the year.

If my projections are accurate why would Bombardier be talking of 30 aircraft? They probably factored in some of the aircraft they had been operating since they came off the assembly line, namely FTVs and P1, the first production aircraft.

Some of them have now been sold and are currently undergoing verifications and modifications to bring them to current production standards. If they were delivered to their customers before the end of the year this would bring the total number of deliveries close to 30 aircraft, like Bombardier are anticipating.

What I find remarkable about this whole situation is that there is no accumulation of what we call « gliders » like we see at Airbus, where a number of aircraft are parked outside waiting for their engines.

It is as if Bombardier had adjusted their production on the assembly line to make sure that aircraft are produced at the same rate they are delivered.

That being said, some questions remain to be answered:

1. At what rate can Pratt & Whitney produce the PW1500G engine today?

2. At what rate would Bombardier produce the C Series if they could get all the engines they need?

3. At what rate would Bombardier's customers take their aircraft if Bombardier could deliver them?

If anyone knows the answer to one or more of these questions please contact me at normand@fliegerfaust.com

** Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of fliegerfaust.com or its other collaborators **

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Original notes and articles
My name is Normand Hamel. After a 35 year career in aviation I retired in 2009 to better concentrate on my favourite activities: reading and writing. If you wonder what Run-up Pad means it refers to this special section of a run-up area on an airport that can be heated up in cold temperatures to prevent an aircraft from slipping forward when power is applied to test the engines. It also refers symbolically to the yellow pad I am using to write these articles for which I intend to bring our readers to contribution to test my ideas, like one would test an engine to make sure it works properly.

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